Jungle Republic - Game Over

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As I tried, before--

Vote: Finn Hudson

Welcome new Dave.

Back to reality, RIP Mike. 

Just by voting patterns I can maybe narrow down who I think are possible WW buddies for Jessie. 

That being April, Finn or Emma. 

I'll expand on this once I wake up a bit. This'll be a long day.

hey all
excited to be playing!
i have been very busy lately but i promise to be way more active than my predecessor. i have started reading and am like 5 pages in, only 20 pages left! i will get caught up and then contribute i promise.

This was a great game guys! Thanks for trusting me and Now Go Village !


-Mike's Soul

Argh 4 days

Ok everyone look at Jesse's list of reads and analyse in depth. This will lead us straight to his partner I believe. I have a couple of ideas already and now trying to find why that would be definite.
Bye mike and welcome Dave

Vote Emma Pillsbury

Throughout d2, she provided practically nothing, and gave pretty much no reasoning for her actions. She seemed to avoid discussing Jesse as WW, and attempted to divert discussions from that topic.

I'm still having a look at possible partners, and who might be mafia, all these posts are especially tedious to go through.

Dave is another possible candidate for ww because he got cleaned by Jesse early on in the day- the question is whether Jesse decided he was screwed at that point and started planning for his own lynch. Not to mention Dave's inactivity save for a suspect hammer.

I still think Kurt's suspicious, he says otherwise, but I really don't see how his posts have been that insightful or useful. He made a large post to defend himself, but then spent most of it discussing Mike-Jesse.

Likewise, I still find Finn suspicious- his justification for the Blaine vote is largely based on wagon, and he has consistently neglected to provide reasoning or substantial analysis unless prompted. I will concede the point about when you raised the Mike-Blaine scumteam though, I think you've explained that specific post reasonably well.

I'm not sure those 2 are wws though, given the nature of their involvement in the Jesse lynch- particularly Kurt, as he maintained that Mike's claim was more believable well in advance of hammering him. They could still be mafia though.

April really didn't do anything the previous day, other than to ask Jesse why he voted Dave despite cleaning him. We could definitely look to apply pressure there.

Hi Dave, I look forward to you posting, unlike the other Daves

Mercedes Jones wrote:Vote Emma Pillsbury

Throughout d2, she provided practically nothing, and gave pretty much no reasoning for her actions. She seemed to avoid discussing Jesse as WW, and attempted to divert discussions from that topic.

I'm still having a look at possible partners, and who might be mafia, all these posts are especially tedious to go through.

I look back in my day 2 posts, i must say, I posted less then I thought, April, Dave, Finn, maybe Sunshine did less but I am barely up with the rest. Just like the idea of Blaine, that I waited too long for my reads, i wish I was told early when I did it, not now, so I would contribute more to the day 2 game, not make up for it day 3.

My reads stay prety much as this in most of day 2:

Emma Pillsbury wrote:Now, I have something to post about, too much happening in my sleep. Mike is better, I will vote Jesse, not yet, though, I want to use the day.

Jesse has a good point in Marley + April, Maybe mafia vs. werewolf again, Marley has been bad day 2--Sunshine accuses and it makes him bad, pushed Mike to claim. Sebastian says Finn is scum early, other two more likely together with him @Jesse

Don't think Jesse says "Dave for town" if theyre together, Finn for Werewolf, I bet.

Almost exactly true, but I forgot Dave, Dave might be mafia, Wolf possible but I dont think Jesse would call him clean as fast, with the vote on him too. I like Jesse's idea on Marley and April, so I say them first, but Dave too, no posts is bad.

I was unsure on Mike-Jesse, i try to make questions to find the bad one, and aksed plenty for both IMO, but when Sunshine said no lynch, it seems right. I think then, and now, we did the wrong way, to take a risk, and if we did no lynch, Mike maybe is alive with second wolf. Maybe Sunshine is the other Werewolf, and she meant to trick us, and i am tricked, but it looked smart.

And I look back, that question Jesse is asked again by Marley and April, why the vote, was from me first. Not a big deal, but if we are partners, maybe he would say that, either way we're not LOL

Kurt Hummel wrote:Ok everyone look at Jesse's list of reads and analyse in depth.

A good plan, before I do one on one, I think Jesse did wanted to catch mafia, to be lynched (and not the partner), and the most buddying is not for the second Werewolf, but town reads, with the ones in between for the partner. If he buddies his friend and dies, we want to lynch and his team loses, so i dont think he did.

Spoiler:

Just on the reads, I think he shows April, Mercedes, Finn, for good choices on the other Wolf. A little for Marley and Sunshine, less likely then the 3.

If Mike's soul could post my soul can post too. I tried my best partner, good luck. Have fun to everyone left!

quick update guys: i am 15 pages of thorough reading in. this is taking quite some time but i couldnt just pass up on the wealth of info! i am on my phone and will try and finish up reading but either way i will post some thoughts tonight!

so im 19 pages in, right around the part in the narrative where jesse claims he is seer and cleaned my predecessor. i wanted to respond real quick to the suggestion that he could be busing a partner: its obviously not a bus to me but not everyone has the luxury of reading my role pm so heres my take on it.

i think its pretty clear that jesses actions are not very well thought out. like seriously he claims the mod got him to join by telling him he would be seer? clearly this would never happen. i feel like this plus the abruptness of his responses point to him trying to think on his feet, kinda as a knee jerk reaction if you know what im saying. whereas busing i feel is more of a calculated deliberate scum move.

i was going to post reads but i got halfway through them and ran out of time. i will finish reading and post my reads later. not necessarily in that order.

finally with 4 day deadlines people need to be more active!

I found another interesting quote of Jesse's

Jesse St. James wrote:I was calm for 8 pages until this shit. Anyways, I'm dead cya guys. Remember marley/april are mafia. Wolves are Mike/Sunshine or Finn.

The way he specifically points out that we should view these people as scum when he knows he's about to be lynched and flip scum, indicates that he wants to manipulate how we view those players. I'm wondering whether he may have listed his partner among them, knowing that his scumreads will be taken less seriously once he flips. Unless that's a little obvious and he hasn't done that at all (Not sure how likely this is though- The damn thing tends to just go around in circles).

Emma, I've re-examined your posts, they aren't as bad as I initially thought, but I'd still like an explanation for this:

Emma Pillsbury wrote:If thats what Jesse posts when he's dead, I want to

Vote: Mike Chang

Your voting pattern is the thing I find most questionable- there's what's listed here, and your decision to vote Finn when Sunshine suggests not focussing on WWs (I would consider this a tell for Sunshine, but she didn't do anything with her vote to follow through on that, so I don't consider it likely. Worth keeping the possibility open though.).

April's lack of contributions d2, not voting are also suspicious. Especially given the way she tunnelled Blaine, and focussed the wagon on him d1- it's quite inconsistent. She's given excuses for the inactivity, but I'm not sure if I'd accept them.

Kurt did step up his posting on d2 I think, maintained that Mike was more believable before hammering. I'm inclined to ease up on him because he maintained his position throughout. On the other hand though, as soon as Jesse claimed seer, it was obvious he would get lynched, so maybe he could've distanced himself to avoid going down with him. Still though, that's seems unlikely, so he's looking less scummy for now.

The thing that pisses me off about examining scum's reads is that they're obviously rubbish since he was scum. But the fact that they're obvious could potentially be utilised. Running around in circles.

This is why I feel that analyzing reads can help:
(also I have quite a short analysis here, wanted to keep it snappy and get the best evidence)

April is feeling like the most likely to be ww. Good job looking like town in earlier days but I think Jesse let everything slip.

Jesse St. James wrote:
APRIL: POSSIBLY NOT SCUM BECAUSE SHE HASNT HAMMERED ME. MAFIA DOESNT GIVE A CRAP WHO THEY KILL THEY JUST WANT KILLS.

Possibly! Looks like Jesse is trying to portray someone as town but not making then too town because that would be suspicious. The "not hammering" suggests Jesse went out of the way to find a reason to make April look like a town alternative.
BUT even though it's one of the few reads of his that does this it doesnt out right make April a partner, just a possibility.

Jesse St. James wrote:
April: She had voted me before I joined the game, I'm not sure of her reasons but generally that's because everyone at the time had given her good vibes. This means that the characters that sounded most scummy to me of all time, early Mike, early Blaine, and early Emma, she thought none of them were scum. Please explain this? Because right now your posts are very insightful and you seem good. Had to go back and edit this, very good read on Blaine. I'll have to do more research myself.

Like Emma I went back to his original reads list to find similarities and differences, which is why I asked for people to analyze Jesse's reads lists.
From this post its not so much the read itself but the conversation that follows. "very logical answer" to just a general response to a fairly general question. "i completely agree" ... right. Some funny business going on here!
However again the read itself remains very much the same on both, its that "seems good" that pops up. Either sliding April under the radar or just response to not a lot to analyze.

There are some bits that do point towards a more ww orientated April:

Voting Jesse previously for instance. Just trying to get activity up? So out of all the inactive people then you pick Jesse to start with. Possibly random but also ww wants an active team; needs to make a covert message to partner to wake up!

Then: Not voting Jesse. This goes back to the "not bad as didnt hammer." So no possibility that April might just not want to hammer teammate. Well Jesse was never going to say that was he, so went for the covert message instead.

In my opinion the two last points point best towards that April could be ww partner for Jesse.


Overall though would like to hear other people's opinions on this topic as there are most likely other people with similar ammounts of evidence being put forward. Just suggesting one here.

Mercedes--
-Voting Mike probably was no use and not smart, but Jesse get to my fear for blaine 2, and my weaknes to Conspiracy Theorys, Mike saying hes Seer as Wolf could been, nobody can kill the Wolf, and Jesse tricked me there in the end.
-Finn wasn't a "not ww" but a "not Jesse, not Mike", as I say I wanted to wait on those. so many people say "find the wolf," I say "find the bad guys", one bad guy or the other.
-Sunshine says "do this thing", didn't vote on it, if it's a tell isnt it worse not doing what you say to the others? i don't think it was bad, but a thought for you.
-With Jesse and Mike as "Seer" every one knew they were dieing in a little while, you may not like this but, does the 2d Wolf try to keep off the vote? I think he does not, he knows Jesse will be wolf, so he wished to be seen as a voter, and helping to Mike always.

I need to look at day 2, to find the guy fitting there, that and the reads, makes a good case i think.

i have finished wading through 25 pages. will post my reads when i have access to my pcwhich tbh wont be for a bit

Mercedes, if we're talking about people who "didn't do anything," why didn't you mention Sunshine? This is probably the definition of the pot calling the kettle black, but she was virtually non-existent. She's definitely been flying under the radar lately as no one is talking about her; I can't tell if that's people have forgotten her, or because she is seen as town? I think the difference between me and her, if anyone asks, is that I have not been getting a free pass (especially as seen from the posts above lol)

I don't understand Kurt's argument on me? Jesse thought I was scum, then thought I wasn't so that's suspicious? It was a coin flip between voting one of the two inactive players, I don't really see how that could be interpreted as a scum move as I would presume there are more subtler ways of giving an activity check then voting for one's partner in the thread.

I didn't hammer because I wasn't around to hammer. I would've done so gladly if the opportunity had presented itself and deadline was closing in. I didn't buy Jesse's explanation of his inspection at all.

With regards to looking at Jesse's post for finding the next scum, I have to agree that there is heavy WIFOM involved. That being said, I think we just have to be careful in interpreting some of the info. Right now, I'm going to have to read back at Jesse's posts and see if I can find something, so hopefully I will by the end of the day.

Emma Pillsbury wrote:does the 2d Wolf try to keep off the vote? I think he does not, he knows Jesse will be wolf, so he wished to be seen as a voter, and helping to Mike always.

I need to look at day 2, to find the guy fitting there, that and the reads, makes a good case i think.

April - almost nothing
Marley - Pointed to both.
Dave - nothing.
Finn - vote Jesse (3) Mike(2) Jesse (5) - At first all against Jesse, at later more points to Mike, vote at end on Jesse
Sunshine - vote Jesse (2) - total against Jesse then says "no lynch?", no lynch maybe helped Wolf or Town, so either
Emma - vote Jesse (4) Mike (2) - I think, I put the pressure both ways.
Kurt - vote Jesse (6) - Like Finn, almost same play
Mercedes - vote Jesse(3) - slow to start, maybe good analisis or bad guy reading others, later against jesse, a post on Mike maybe, but mostly Jesse.

This one says go to Sunshine, Mercedes, maybe Finn or Kurt are bad but not this way.
Before was April, Mercedes, Finn, maybe Marley or Sunshine.
Now it is more, Mercedes looks like wolf, Finn and Sunshine do but not as much, April a little, maybe Kurt slightly.

I think still, Finn looks worse on all the posts, then think Mercedes and Sunshine can be bad, I may look on day 1 sebastian for mafia, the same way, but its hard because he did not know he was dead probably, Jesse did.

April
Of course Jesse changing his mind over little evidence is suspicious. My point there was based on how Jesse was going to hide his partner as best as possible. And the way that you two had interacted over the two days looked like the most likely partnership in my opinion. And also it isn't heavy WIFOM, the fact that Jesse was on his last legs meant that he needed to save his own skin and therefore prone to make a mistake. Those mistakes are what we need to find. And as I said before this is just what I believe is the most likely possibility at the current time, so if we do keep looking at past posts then we can find these mistakes

Vote April

Jesse changing his mind over April/Marley being a scum team with relatively no evidence, April contributed next to nothing Day 2.

Kurt, I'm pretty sure is WIFOM. We don't know why he switched and speculation leads us to believe it could've been for any reason. He could've switched on me because I was his partner to clean me, but he also could've switched to throw suspicion on me. I get what you are trying to say with the mistake, but I'm not so sure if that really is significant enough for it not to be WIFOM.

Ummmm, talk about an opportunistic vote by Finn there. While I would expect someone like Kurt to lay down a vote, I am a little worried with Finn. Finn has laid probably the definition of a bare-bones argument. He's basically picked two small minor events of an explosive day and decided... I'm scum??? ok... Your first point is directed at Marley and me, so I don't see how that is conclusive towards me. And your next point doesn't make sense from a town standpoint. Are you telling me we should be voting of "noncontributors?" No, we should be voting scum. You vote off noncontributors if they are scummy, not just because you can. Maybe this is coming off as OMGUSsy but Finn's recent post is doing himself no favors imo.

I hope Marley gets back to us sooner rather than later on what her evidence is, seeing that deadline is closing in. Same with you Dave, sooner rather than later.

Busy tomorrow but I'm going to try and take a look at Emma and see what i come up with. Her play has been shaky for me so far, in that, some posts I read come off as "what....that's scummy..." and others come off as "damn this dude is def. town." So yeah, I want to explore that option, right before I decide on who I want to throw my vote on..

my observations so far:

april rhodes: this cat obviously knows how to play. however i was really irked by the hypocrisy of her attack on blaine. she was definitely one of the strongest supporters of his lynch and while this doesnt look bad in and of itself lets take a look at a post i found quite scummy which is on pg 13. april says “yes I do know I have been going after Blaine all game” but the bulk of her argument is around the premise that “He basically admits to tunneling which is a scum move”. she also has the nerve to call him out for calling the kettle black which seems to me to be what she is doing yes? this seems to me to be entirely a case of a hypocritical and thus fabricated scumread.

marley rose: i actually found jesses bit on the possible marley/april/seb mafia team to be pretty intruiging. i dont necessarily think all three are mafia, but either seem like possible partners to me. nothing has struck me as particularly off in marleys play but i did find some things like her ringing endorsement of jesse after posting his first set of reads which i actually found to be fairly suspect as somewhat strange. i guess most of it is gut but in general i dont feel like i read her as much town as most of the game.

finn hudson: i dont at all like his lack of reasoning but i could see this simply being a symptom of being a vi. however i think his interactions with jesse are actually pretty telling. basically he began by voting jesse, and then once jesse “got mike to admit he was seer” he switched votes immediately. could def see this as a partner trying to lend momentum to a swing but i guess finn might be dumb enough to have actually believed that. then there was jesses outburst and finn put his vote back on jesse which felt to me to be somewhat fabricated interaction. like jesse was like here ill make an angry post and then you bus me. so in all finn is my #1 ww suspect.

sunshine corazon: when she does post her posts are entirely focused on scumhunting and she always has something original to say. seems to put significant effort into looking for scumtells and isnt afraid to call anyone on it or back it with a vote even if said person is viewed by most as town. so yeah in my book theyre giving off a lot of towntells. not saying its impossible for her to be scum but i would not lynch. does need to post more though.

emma pillsbury: one thing i felt was pretty telling as to what kind of player emma is was that she became totally fixated on blaine for him backing out of the “bet” he and mike made. like she was actually taking that bet seriously shows me she may not be the sharpest tool in the shed. she seems to be attempting to contribute and i really havent been able to gauge any strange player interactions with her so i really dont see her as scum.

kurt hummel: dont really have much to say on this guy. he seems to poke in every so often and say stuff but i havent really seen him scumhunting a whole lot. his latest post was good though. i guess hes pretty null in my eyes.

mercedes jones: definitely the most town player in this thread so far. i dont really have much to add but the biggest thing she has going for her in my book is the fact that she placed semi significant votes on both sebastian and jesse day 1. call me paranoid but i do have a faint fear that one of these votes is a well pulled off bus. however even with that said i would not lynch.

okay glad those are out of the way. we have less than two days left so at this point i think its crucial everyone starts dropping a vote. i dont think its necessarily essential we shoot for ww today, i think its more important that we try and hit scum in general. if we restrict ourselves to try and hit ww and miss then we will be in a bit of a hole (4-2-1) and if ww is dumb enough to shoot for town, or if they miss mafia, then its even worse (3-2-1). so yeah obviously its best if we hit ww but better to just try and lynch the scummiest person imo.

also please people if youre gonna go back and read jesses reads then pay more attention to his first set of reads, before mike outed him. they will be far more telling.

i might reread some and hunt some scum and stuff at a later time.

and although i hate myself for sharing a target with finn, vote april rhodes

Well, it seems like majority is entertaining the Jesse's mafia claim on me. Let me just defend myself for a bit. 

Reading back, I can exactly see why people would buddy me up with April and Sebastian. Most of my points with April were in line with one another, though let me just point out that she parroted most of the initial claims considering in the earlier parts of the game I was leaning pro-town. Her inactivity early on was extremely difficult to put a call on her which led me to brushing her off as a null-townie. This, changing from the reaction towards the Jessie vote. 

She immediately just jumped on the bandwagon with [b style="font-weight: bold;"]absolutely nothing[/b] to contribute towards it. I tried to remain impartial and even tip towards Jessie at some point, because it was all to have him add to his current claims and even get him to do a full town read. If players did what she did then, and just bandwagon on that claim then it's obvious that she has nothing original to bring to the table. If you're going to partner me with someone who I was going to pressure next then go ahead, call it off as bussing, take the opportunity to expand on that.


Moving on to my next scumread, Finn Hudson.

As I was reading back on everyone's posts, he posted nothing of original content. He has piss poor post count with equally poor post quality. Check for yourself, he's much like April except April actually gave effort in her posts. He's just idly drifting along and joining the bandwagon. I already noticed this earlier on in the game but set him aside since there were much bigger scumtells on other players. Right now it's just coming up to bite him in the rear. All of his votes were merely "hmm I thought about it and I'm voting x" or "I agree, vote x" which puts him either as scum, or completely lost townie. I'm leaning towards the former. 


As for the new Dave, he's already being more townie than I've expected him to be. Dave 1 and 2 were replaced due to inactivity, which is pretty disappointing during the start, but this could pave way into at least listing him down as one of the townies. Such activity could mean that his predecessors didn't have much say in this game due to the roles hence their horrible inactivity, and at this stage, where useless fluff posts and lurking around with nothing to say immediately rings of scum, he's actually trying to scumhunt which is bonus points for him. 

Jesse 'cleaning' the former Dave could possibly mean that he's trying to mislead us to questioning the wrong people. Using the inactivity and fake cleaning to signify a scumtell/hunt on him after he was lynched. 

After some thinking (not that much really) Emma is starting to seem a little shaky so I'll have to go null for now. I'm gonna have to read back on her posts. What caught my eye on her though was reading back on
[b style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: Verdana; line-height: 18.1875px; background-color: rgb(236, 243, 247);"]>Blaine Anderson (5)[/b] - Emma Pillsbury, Finn Hudson, April Rhodes, Jesse St. James, Marley Rose (L-2)

I'll agree with Mercedes and Dave on the fact that Kurt has been improving with his posts. One of the person who was edging scum is somehow making it back. I'm not fully convinced though, I'll just have to parrot (omgscum) what they've said. Though I'd like to point out the small instance of buddying that between him and Finn. That's been buried under a lot of nonsense and I feel it'd be relevant now. 


Sunshine is confusing, in my opinion. Her votes seem to stray away from most of the village and try to start something that has little to no basis to work with. I don't really understand her scumtells on me (sorry) and whenever I see her post I just can't take anything to be used for scumhunting, or to use against her. Activity is obviously a factor but she has done nothing to push her away from a null state. 


With all that being said, I'm going to have to

vote Finn Hudson

A lot of post formatting errors here and there, it looked much prettier on as I was looking back on it. 

Anyways, just to add. 

My remaining impartial and entertaining the extremely low possibility of Jesse flipping seer (which at that point was pretty obvious he wasn't) was to open up to the opportunity where he had to take sides with someone. Just from his analyses on different people he was able to at least round down the potential suspects. Maybe a way of scumhunting a probable buddy wolf to see who tries to sit on the fence with his PR crossing with Mike.

Marley and Mercedes, both say the "crossing" on jesse/Mike is a bad sign, but don't say Sunshine maybe a Werewolf, why?

Dave, Jesse's day 1 read post is like Marley's, very close opinions, you can say if thats a tell on Marley, but what else is to learn on it? Compare to day2, you get an idea, but i don't think he wants to change others day 1, just parrot.

to think to it, Marley was in the middle on Sebastian, now that I check it, not "town", just nice, so Finn may be in that place. Sebastian did a post on all but Marley, Finn, April, page 14, if the team is 2 out of 3 then, that helps.

Sebastian was hard to me and Jesse, says some buddies between Kurt, Blaine, Finn, but no vote on them, i'm not learning alot from his posts.