Jungle Republic - Game Over

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looked back at one of finns posts at the bottom of pg 17. he has both kurt/dave listed as the second mafia and the second ww. i think its notable cuz kurt literally sided with mike immediately so i really think its unlikely hes the second wolf. i mean this isnt conclusive but finn listing hims as the possible wolf partner for jesse seems extremely opportunistic like hes simply taking two of everyones top scumreads and listing them as either mafia or ww without actually thinking about whether or not it makes sense. seems pretty scummy imo.
im slowly making my way back through day two and ill post thoughts as i come across em

@emma im not entirely sure what youre getting at. if your point is finn might be mafia then i agree. his play this game has been very suspect not necessarily just in relation to being on the ww team but i do have this nagging fear that he is just really bad town whereas april seems to me to be a more experienced player that has scummed up but is def not noob town.
however on to your point im not sure if youre doing this or not since i have trouble understanding your posts. but it feels like youre saying "marley didnt read seb as town so theyre probably not on a scumteam". this isnt the case since scum will list each other as town/scum/ null. what we need to look for are things that seem "off" in the reads

an example of a read being off which emma reminded me of:

april rhodes wrote:Sebastian Smythe -town as I think he's tried to generate discussion which is always something I think is overlooked as a town read

this is off to me for several reasons:

1)she calls sunshine leaning scum for a lack of posts and iirc sebastian didnt post a ton either
2)it didnt strike me that seb was particularly generating discussion but instead as has been said was mostly summarizing events

wow okay so my reread has taken a very twist. in this post i will be attempting to show what i am now considering as a major if not likely possibility: that mercedes jones is werewolf.
i know i said i thought mercedes was likely town due to the fact that she put a semiserious vote on jesse day 1. however lets consider that vote in question.

mercedes jones wrote:Jesse, though it's important to get a lynch, the fact that you've provided absolutely none of your own analysis and reasoning is of extreme suspicion. It's so blatant it's really quite alarming. It's very scummy, and not at all in the interests of the village. I hope you've got some good points. unvote Vote Jesse St. James

now note how strongly worded these accusations are. if i were scum i would word it as such so that people going back and looking at it would have no doubt saying "yeah that was definitely a serious vote".
however consider the context of this vote. both blaine and mike were major suspects at this point and both were posting so much and so poorly so as to make it almost impossible for pressure to spread elsewhere. it was really the perfect atmosphere for a bus.
now this of course doesnt mean it was a bus but rather that it is possible. now i will gp on to show you what led me to reconsider my notion that mercedes was town: namely her interactions on the jesse/mike faceoff.

lets look at her first post after the duo ww claims:

mercedes jones wrote:New posts: umm, yeah, I don't know what my stance on these claims is yet. Guys how have you gotten your wws? Like are they all based on seer results, or have some of them come from your own reads about what's gone on in this thread?

this was her initial reaction. note that unlike players like kurt and sunshine she doesnt immediately say or even suggest that mike is the more likely seer. to me it was pretty obvious since if mike were scum it would be extremely unlikely the player he claimed he got a ww inspect on actually was the seer themselves. so the fact that mercedes basically avoided making a verdict leaves the possibility that she is the second ww open.

moving on the her next post she says:
[quote=mercedes jones]However, now that I've got time to go through Mike and Jesse's posts, I will focus on them, given that we know one of them's scum. I'll go through all that in my next post.[/quote]
basically she promises she will come to a conclusion in her next post. so on to said next post!

Mercedes Jones wrote:Actually you know what, I'm tired and going through all of this shit is tedious, I'll probably make a proper post tomorrow. I'm still very much undecided on who's scum, so just because this post will target Mike, I'm not necessarily thinking he's ww.

I will say this though: Mike you're asking us to suspend critical thinking and simply trust you. Why the hell should we do this, it seems a very solid way to get yourself burnt by manipulative scum? Why do you refuse to reveal the final ww? I really don't see how withholding scum identities can benefit the village, now that you've claimed.

You suggest that one other person has received your hints and can back you up if you die before your "plan" is executed. However, if you die and flip seer, how can we rely on any claims from that point forth? Anyone can claim "Person X is ww, that was Mike's 2nd ww", and we will have no way of knowing whether they are telling the truth.

Please reveal the 2nd ww, at best you're withholding information that can benefit the village, which will be lost if you are killed, at worst you're scum. At present I find your play decidedly anti-village.

upon rereading this is probably the most incriminating post of the entire game imo
basically what mercedes does here equates to simultaneously:
1)avoiding coming to any sort of stance whatsoever yet again as to who she thinks is lying or even who shes leaning towards
2)attempting to incriminate mike without actually commiting to labeling him as the false claimer

basically how i read this is mercedes says: "heres why i think mike is scum" but without actually saying she thinks mike is scum and rather waiting to see how people react. had people echoed her "doubts" concerning mike she would be free to help lead a wagon against the seer. however this would also leave her free to switch her vote and bus her ww partner without looking scummy. this very noncommital yet passive play is very characteristic of scum and imo strongly points to mercedes as the second ww.
also of note is that mercedes doesnt vote jesse or even raise her "reasoning" as to why he is ww until it becomes clear people arent buyin what jesses selling and marley calls her on being a possible ww partner.
tldr i think i have caught the second ww who if allowed to continue on her current trajectory would be very well positioned to win.

it might be late in the day to start a wagon against most peoples top townread but i feel confident enough to unvote vote mercedes jones. hopefully what i found will resonate as much with others as it did with me.

if we dont lynch mercedes today id rather not lynch finn. i think hes less likely to be scum since i previously thought he might be ww but im obviously reconsidering that now. i do think he still might be mafia but id much rather lynch april at this point.

sorry for the broken tags and typos and stuff. i just typed the entire thing on my mobile device!

Hi all. Back in businesss wooo
No more inactive me

Will post a *hopefully* substantial post in a couple hours when I have some time.

Till then

most of Dave's post against me:

Regarding the first post I've included here- I hadn't read through all of their posts yet, and I'd rather think it through, as opposed to coming to a snap judgement with poor reasoning and subsequently flopping back and forth to no good.

You seem to rely on the fact that I state that I'll deliver my thoughts in the next post, which is the one you single out as incriminating, and that therefore it will represent my final verdict. However, I'd like to think I make it clear that I decide not to do that and leave it to a later post.

Actually you know what, I'm tired and going through all of this shit is tedious, I'll probably make a proper post tomorrow. I'm still very much undecided on who's scum

The purpose of this post was instead to get Mike to be a little more transparent- he asked to just trust him, not just on d2 but d1 as well. I'm not directly addressing the ww/seer claims, I'm targeting a specific tendency of Mike's, which happened to be of relevance to the issue at hand- I still hadn't reached a conclusion by then. I'm obviously not going to merely accept his word, so I wanted to pressure him into revealing some information.

I hadn't ruled out that his actions were just really poor town play- I was never able to dismiss the village idiot explanation, even with his mysteriousness. One way or the other, I wanted him to stop being so opaque. I chose to describe his play as anti-village rather than scummy for a reason- because I was still leaving the possibility of poor town play open and because I still wanted to pressure him

I'll be back with reads when I get around to it.

my argument does not rely on the fact that you promise to deliver thoughts and then fail to do so whatsoever. rather my argument is that you continually procrastinate coming to a verdict (one which imo was pretty obvious but hindsight is like that) and instead wait to see what other people think before deciding to support or bus a partner.
its not that you say youll post next post then dont but that you avoid committing for several posts

I can see how the fact that I reached my conclusions only after several others did isn't looking too good, and frankly, I'm not sure how well I can argue that point, since it really is just coincidence that they started really pushing Jesse shortly before I did.

I would like to point out that I did come up with my own original reasoning (Specifically that Mike's d2 actions didn't fit the pattern of cornered scum fakeclaiming to live another day).

In fact, I looked back the posts at the time between me pressuring Mike and stating that Mike's claim was more believable. The only post in that time period that indicated people would move against Jesse was one post by Marley. Other than that, it was just back and forth between Mike and Jesse, with Finn responding to an earlier post of mine, Emma asking a few questions which were directed more at Mike. So there was just the one post to suggest a significant shift against Jesse from what there was prior to my "incriminating post". I'd hardly call that significant.

Dave- Yeah, inactive, hammer for no given reason. I guess that could be explained by the fact he'd just joined the game when he hammered- almost everything had been said, he didn't have an opportunity to expand on it. His recent posting has been pretty solid- he's given some pretty decent arguments and seems to be keeping an open mind about scum. The only substantial posting we've seen from him suggests town. Also, I'm kind of doubting that Jesse cleaning him indicates scumbuddy- it seems too obvious (lol WIFOM though), and I think it far more likely that his buddy is one of his scumreads.

Marley- Yeah, I've got nothing, she's been consistently bringing good points forward. Jesse included her in his scumreads, which I suspect might be hiding his partner, and there are those points about Sebastian's reads (More the fact that she had him as town d1 and that Seb didn't do a read for her iirc). I'm not confident in using that evidence yet, and she's otherwise been town.

@Marley What are your thoughts on April after D2?

Sunshine- I'm really not sure, she's been very inactive. I plan to keep an eye out. Slight scum. Inactivity, that post Emma and I discussed briefly, not to mention her posts haven't been that good, in my opinion- they've rarely analysed anything and she's managed to avoid a lot of the discussion.

@Sunshine: Are you still thinking Marley is scum? If so, how does d2 relate to this?

Kurt- Null, because I think his posting has picked up, he's now trying to offer a little analysis/scumhunting.

Emma- I've been getting a lot of mixed signals here, her d2 posting was oddly insubstantial, but overall, I guess she hasn't been too bad. null for now.

April- Not only was she nowhere to be seen d2, but when she did post, it contributed nothing, and she really didn't take part, which, like I said, is very inconsistent with her aggressive push for the Blaine lynch on d1. She seems scum for sure, but I'm not yet sure where she fits into things (MAfia? WW?).

Finn- Scummiest thus far, and in my mind a viable partner for Jesse- contributed pretty much nothing. The way in which he tried to seize upon Mike's "slip" is consistent with a scumbuddy hoping to help a partner live a little longer. His voting pattern, Jesse's read of him, all suggest to me that he's a possible partner.

unvote
Vote Finn Hudson

Also can we get a votecount?

Dave, I was really confused because I thought I said those words about Kurt. I thought you misread my post until I went back and checked it out for myself. Oops. yeah, I for some reason completely switched my reads for Kurt and Sebastian. The read for Kurt was actually the read for Sebastian. That's my bad!

Mercedes, I wouldn't even call my push on Blaine Day 1 "aggressive." I called it as I saw it. That being said, I agree I was virtually nonexistent. That was due mainly because of other obligations that I needed to fulfill first, which meant my time for this game decreased. I know, it's a lame excuse, but I want to reiterate that I was completely for a Jesse lynch. The reason I was questioning jesse and his vote on dave before cleaning him was because I didn't buy it at all. I could've sworn I made that clear in a post somewhere, but I guess I didn't. :/

Regarding Marley, I will say that I'm a bit confused why she thinks I parroted her on Jesse? While I admit I could've said more in that situation, I will say that the reason I "jumped on the bandwagon" was that it was pretty obvious to me that Jesse was scum. If I had the time I would've fought for that one as much as I did for Blaine. hindsight is 20/20 but I'm not sure I buy the "I was being impartial to get him to do reads! Yeah!" While it's nice and all to be impartial there is a line where you have to be firm on your reads and follow through with them (which I have tried to do). I will apologize for not being as active as I could be, but I really don't think it's fair to count someone as scum just because they feel strongly towards a certain read of theirs.

Marley, if you are calling me out of unoriginal content, then I'm afraid you are quite wrong. While I'm sure I may have inadvertently repeated someone at one time or another, make no mistake that most of my posts have been my own original thought. Please don't knock on my posts without evidence (referring to your part on Finn where you also call me out. that was nice and subtle btw, I liked that :] )

The more I think about Sunshine, the more I get worried about her. We seem to be giving her a pass based on "well she's made a few good posts but otherwise she's mia," not to mention that about half of her posts don't say anything in terms they are "oh I will post later" or joke posts or posts fixing grammar. Looking back at some of her posts, I think the Marley argument was really out of left field (and kind of weak to be honest). It completely threw me off guard, and I didn't really get what the purpose was (especially since she didn't refer to the vote on blaine at the time iirc). I was also looking through Jesse's reads and found it interesting that he said that she had an "insightful" post before going on to say he thinks she may be scum? There seems to be a logic disconnect there, especially since he seems to say she is all three at once.

I'd like to hear others opinions on Sunshine beyond just "she's inactive." I feel it's a bit too late to be excusing inactivity, especially at this point in the game.

@everyone - considering the past actions of the two previous Dave's, should we be a bit wary about immediately declaring new dave clean? how much should we consider his suspect hammer and jesse/dave interactions (specifically the inspect)

Tournament Rules:

Do not talk after you are dead or replaced.

We already gave you one "bah" post. Do not deadtalk again in this thread or your Quicktopic, whether you feel the information you share is relevant or not. Wait, like everyone else, until the game is finished. This is your last warning.

~Seb

I don't think 11 hours is good to a new lynch, if Finn isnt Werewolf I say Mercedes, then Sunshine or April, I think Finn is bad, though.

Dave, on Marley, I mean Jesse's idea of April + Marley with Sebastian, on day 2, isn't perfect, Finn fits in it, but i think Finn is to die tonight(real life), and we'll know then.

April, Sunshine now is you day 2, but it is odd, she said Mercedes was not clean day 1, but keeps going back after it, example, the post on the start of day2 didn't say Mercedes, but Mercedes is a late Blaine vote too. New Dave, don't know, but looks good now, like Day 1 Sunshine.

Emma, I'm a bit lost on what you mean when you say Sunshine "keeps going back after it." Do you mean that Sunshine is tracking back and saying Mercedes is good now? I need a little explanation there.

Vote Finn Hudson. I think he is by far the best choice for scum due to his overall actions and his most recent vote which looked very opportunistic. He has been sliding through the cracks with regards to a lack of posting, and his posts when he does make them are lacking content. His argument on me was really weak considering his first bit of "evidence" was inconclusive and his second piece of "evidence" was not indicative of me being scum. His case was built on a lack of posting, which is something I am trying to amend, and is not by itself a conclusive scum tell. He is trying to post the bare minimum to get by, something I think everyone has correctly seen as a scum-influenced move.

Also want to point out I saw both Dave and Finn browsing the forum without posting. I'm not sure what to make of it at the moment, so I'm just going to leave it here for now.

April, "keeps" may be wrong of me, I read a post wrong, but i think this (start of Day 2) is true for Mercedes, most of it I mean

Sunshine Corazon wrote:nothing's really changed on that read and her switching vote to blaine further cements that;
because of the points system you have more incentive to think about your vote at the end of the day and her actions are indicative of a scum mindset, voting someone she said was null previously. Not that blaine was obv town at the end there, but I mean marley was never particularly forefront about *thinking* (or pretending hehe) blaine was scum in her mind. (iirc)

Urgh keep logging on too late...
Look 5 hours to go and nothing much else happening so hands up needing to hammer again.
Trying to keep this short enough so people don't get bored reading through it.

I did think that April was acting scummy and would still be fairly high on my scum list due to the points I posted. However the way Finn voted with such flimsy points straight after gave some very scummy signs. This in addition to parts in previous days including similar actions like the Blaine lynch just adds to his scummyness. Overall he is going to be bad.

Dave in my opinion seems to be acting like a town person should do. Instead of shying away from the game having just been subbed in he has jumped straight in with reads and scum hunting which would point to being a towns person. From experience I think someone who was actually scum wouldn't jump in as fast as Dave did. The hammer on the Blaine side wasnt especially scummy just the lack of reasons was and I don't think that this can really be put against him.

As said I think April is a candidate for ww however I wouldn't be surprised if she turned out to be maf. The bits I picked out were to show she was likely to be ww but this was leaving aside the general scummyness like the early parroting and trying to not be noticed.

Emma I doubt is scum if we are correct with other scum candidates. But that is one her only redeeming features, even though Blaine's analysis wasnt conclusive evidence, or evidence at all really there were still points in it that would point to scum and like other people said day two stuff was a bit off. But I stand by me saying that I doubt she is scum

On marley i think even though has had some pro town posts I think the fact she appeared on a few peoples Mafia lists like sunshine and Jesse means that she shouldn't be discarded as a scum option. Her post trying to defend herself was less of a town me and more of a they are bad. This then didn't remove the possibility that she would be scum herself which is still a possibility therefore. But the attacks on April in that post could be argued as those two not being paired up as originally thought.

Sunshine! Why don't you post more... You said like yesterday that you had some useful bits and pieces but they haven't arrived in time... Good timing perhaps for her. But the lack of posting doesn't hide the pro town posts that she has produced  so I wouldn't put her on a list of scum as of yet

Finally Mercedes. Hmmm pro Marley but anti sunshine and april. I thought those bits against her would be sufficient enough to put Marley at middle at least. But that anti April would then go against my reads if a merc. / Marley maf team were to exist. And sunshine one is a bit ott imo. I did think very town earlier but drifting slightly.
---
Overall top scum reads are still Finn and April ... Mercedes and Marley though are making this very interesting
---

As said before
vote Finn Hudson

nightless

Everyone, please say, was Finn your top guy for the Werewoolf?

Responding to Kurt, I will say that is argument has pretty much deteriorated (hey I'm not WW!!), but I will say that I'm not sure why you would consider my early posts to be parroting? I kinda get "under the radar" but then again Sunshine has been "under the radar," but you are giving her a pass for "pro-town" posts. What happened to my posts being pro-town :[

I'm going to read back and see if I can find some connection between Sebastian and somebody here. At the moment my only read that is solid is Mercedes as town.

Long day x_x good night

Emma Pillsbury wrote:

April Rhodes wrote:sexist pig

Vote: Emma Pillsbury

I think you are mafia.

April figured me out.

Vote: Blaine Anderson for voting the Seer.

Starting off nightless with that. My top 2 scumreads as of now.


Though people might not take that seriously, it did start me off a bit with my scumhunt. Most of my claims were based on people's analyses and their reaction towards Sebastian earlier on in the game so here we go.

I'd like to put forward that the scum team is between April Rhodes and Emma Pilsbury with my vote leaning towards Emma.

Emma Pillsbury wrote:Mike--
Blaine doesnt care about you, he's just off now that his life is in danger if you're not on the other team, he wants an easy mislynch either way. Blaine will discover that I don't make bets like that EVER because it's unethical, Use it to push for a lynch. Or more nonsense logic like on you

Marley--
pot calls the kettle a Black.

April--
LOL parrot cheep cheep

Another small instance between Emma and April that stood out for me. Emma led the bandwagon on Blaine after the issue between him and Mike resolved, which was opportunistic if you ask me. She used his recklessness and tunneling to work with something and April parroted it then and there. If you read on April's posts about Blaine, you'd notice her pulling stuff out of her ass that's mostly fluff and not really scumreading. It's mostly "He's a bad guy because he's aggressive with scumhunting." "His posts are careless and sloppy." and I do admit that I had to join in the bandwagon due to time pressure, but those two are buddying. I'm confident of it.

Any other player can see that Emma just ignored April parroting and both continued to tunnel Blaine. This due to them being scumpartners. 

Sebastian Smythe wrote:Okay, I won't say much about most of the cancerous posts that were posted while I was sleeping, as it is just a huge aggressive argument between Blaine and Mike. The most important thing to note is both of them had completely different thoughts after Sebastian (Hummel) came in and stopped the argument.

Anyway, I have some questions for the two of them involving the sitatuion:

@Blaine:

What made you change your viewpoint on Mike to absolute scum to village idiot?

What was your motive for attempting to figure out Mike's PO alias, and revealing it in the game?

@Mike

What are your current viewpoints on Blaine now, after your heated argument and then completely turning around and unvoting him?

Why do you use Emma as a reference to supporting you during your argument? Honestly it makes it seem like there is buddying going on with both of you.

Regarding the buddying between Emma and Mike, I see a couple possible scenarios:

- Mike is trying to use Emma as a reference in helping to defend himself, Mike could be trying to make Emma flip scum.

- Mike may be trying to get Emma on his side, trying to get her to agree with him to prevent himself from getting voted by her.

Anyways, I'm tired now, I'll respond to more of the discussion tomorrow

On that note, Sebastian had a vote on Emma earlier on, though it wasn't a scumtell vote, it was a vote to add pressure and have her put out the claims. Sebastian Smyth is a good player, though his posting was short lived considering he was killed off first, I am fairly confident that he's the type to pull off a bus like that.

On the quote, I found it highly opportunistic that he jumped on Mike and tried to clean off Emma by putting her as a neutral party rather than a buddy herself. Emma and him might've brushed off the buddying but after the Blaine x Mike fiasco it was fairly obvious that they were buddying just then. Sebastian took this opportunity to retract the vote on Emma and switch focus on someone else. 

Both of them just idly posted when Mike claimed seer accusing Jessie, despite the possibility that Mike was lying was abysmal. They just merely jumped on the bandwagon with little to no effort of scumhunting for a potential partner. Even the two more inactive players, Sunshine and Kurt, managed to bring something to the table unlike the pair. 

Mercedes has been acting extremely thorough with her posts. I entertained the possibility of her being wolf because she had complete control and trust on the village and whenever that happens, I'll usually get paranoid. Though with the threat of the wolf eliminated, I'm going to have to push her off as clean, for now, depending on what happens for the initial lynch. 

I would make this more organized and add more evidence but I'm having difficulty with quoting older posts. I apologize. I just took the few instances of parroting and buddying by both. They for me seem the scummiest in the game at the moment and I just wanted to highlight to everyone the possibility that they are the mafia pair.

With that, I'm going to have to..

vote Emma Pillsbury

April Rhodes wrote:Dave, I was really confused because I thought I said those words about Kurt. I thought you misread my post until I went back and checked it out for myself. Oops. yeah, I for some reason completely switched my reads for Kurt and Sebastian. The read for Kurt was actually the read for Sebastian. That's my bad!

this is interesting. when i have time i plan on going back to see if i can find evidence that this is a lie because it seems unlikely to me that someone can get two reads completely flipped.. i mean it may be the truth and im willing to give the benefit of the doubt but if it turns out i find evidence that suggests its just a poor attempt to disassociate with a partner whos flipped then that would look pretty bad yes?

also:

April Rhodes wrote:Also want to point out I saw both Dave and Finn browsing the forum without posting. I'm not sure what to make of it at the moment, so I'm just going to leave it here for now.

i often browse the thread on my phone when i dont actually have time to type up a post. you caught me.
i was fully planning on being on at the deadline to put my vote on you or finn but saw that the day had already ended so i didnt do so till now!

with regards to the lynch: i guess i was wrong about mercedes lol. i mean to be fair part of the callout was intended to simply put pressure on someone who hadnt been pressured at all and its safe to say her response was pretty town. however i did actually think i was on to something so what is there to say besides i was wrong.

i actually nailed finn before going back and doubting myself lol.

anyways:

im gonna have to go back and reread again this time looking for potential partners to sebastian. i like what marley did and im still leaning to april for one of them. iirc she still hasnt responded to my point concerning her calling blaine scum for tunneling but meanwhile she was tunneling him herself and was also calling him out for being hypocritical.

i suggest others go back and reread seb too.

however i will likely not have much time this week and might not actually get around to rereading unfortunately. for now i will vote april rhodes on account of being my top scumread for reasons previously mentioned.